sagamingbaccarat| Wang Yiming: The global economy is moving towards lower growth, higher inflation, and higher debt

Wang Yiming, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said on Monday that after the COVID-19 epidemic, the global economy has shifted from low growth, low inflation, low interest rates, and high debt to lower growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and higher debt, this trend will seriously affect the trend of the global economy and financial markets.

"I think the growth is even lower than in the past and has come to a higher level." Wang Yiming said at the "Bretton Woods System: The Past 80 Years and Future Prospects" International Conference and the 2024 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum. He pointed out that the current general forecast is that the global economy will grow at an average annual rate of 3% in the next five years, while the average annual growth from 2000 to 2019 will be 3%sagamingbaccarat.8%。

He said one question worth discussing here is whether artificial intelligence will change the low-growth situation. For now alone, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether the positive impact of artificial intelligence on production efficiency can offset the negative impact of anti-globalization and geopolitical conflicts.

The second is inflation. Wang Yiming said that inflation has generally eased at present, but it is difficult to return to its past level. This is because in the past, financial globalization absorbed global money, but now globalization is regressing and fragmented. The biggest challenge brought about by changes in inflation is higher debt.

"After the epidemic, debt is like a runaway horse. Global debt levels have increased significantly, and the total global debt is close to 250% of GDP." He said that high debt will bring three problems: First, due to the stickiness of inflation, interest rates will remain at a relatively high level, so the cost of debt will increase significantlysagamingbaccaratSecond, fiscal and monetary policy space has narrowed a lot, and policies face a dilemma; third, in order to fight inflation, major economies are shrinking their balance sheets, which will ultimately drag down future economic growth.

"I think these basic variables, if inflation and debt cannot be effectively verified, will affect and drag down the process of global economic recovery." Wang Yiming said.